Theory of Change

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.
“I don’t much care where—” said Alice.
“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.
“—so long as I get somewhere,” Alice added as an explanation.
“Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.” —

Dialogue from Alice in Wonderland

Benefits

• Forms a solid basis for strategic planning

• Helps to understand the challenges and opportunities

• Helps to set realistic goals, clarify accountabilities and establish a common understanding

Be aware

• Change is not linear. A ToC needs to be adapted over time in response to a changing context.

• Key stakeholders should be closely involved in developing the ToC as this creates ownership of the process and ensures that the initiative/organisation is relevant and useful.

Description of the approach

‘Theories of Change are the ideas and hypotheses (“theories”) people and organisations have about how change happens. These theories can be conscious or unconscious and are based on personal beliefs, assumptions and a necessarily limited, personal perception of reality (van Es et al., 2015: 12).

A Theory of Change (ToC) is a strategic process to make assumptions about how change happens. This results in a ToC, often visualized and shared within stakeholders of an organisation.

ToC discussions may touch on areas such as how changes in behaviour happen (individually and in groups), how shifts in the balance of power occur, and the role of state and civil society. At the heart of a good ToC is the explicit inclusion of values underlying views or perspectives on how change happens, and the assumptions around change and the drivers of change.

Assumptions explain our thought processes, reasoning and how we arrive at certain conclusions. They are hard to articulate because they are deeply held perceptions that have been taken for granted.

Creating your Theory of Change

1. Identify your purpose

Ideally, the purpose is determined by you and key stakeholders before carrying out the situation analysis. Identifying the purpose will enable you to decide who to involve in the process, the level of detail of the ToC, and the questions you need to ask at each step of the process. An important part of identifying the purpose is to remain focused and realistic in what you set out to achieve.

2. Develop your vision and define the desired change

After the situation analysis, try to visualize, along with your stakeholders, the desired change you want to see in the future, taking into consideration the findings from the various analyses done earlier (e.g. problems/issues analysis, institutional and stakeholder analyses, identification of future trends and opportunities).

Step 3. Identify domains of change

After having defined the desired change, identify domains of change, where you and your stakeholders believe change is most needed. These include medium- to long-term changes such as a change in behaviour, relationships, capabilities, formal and informal institutions. A key guiding question could be: Who and/or what needs to change for the envisaged change to come about?

Step 4. Identify strategic priorities

This step is about analysing and deciding on priorities and the domains of change where you can have the most influence. It is about answering the question: What changes can we best influence within the next few years? 

Step 5. Develop pathways of change

Once the strategic priorities have been identified, develop pathways of change that make explicit your assumptions about how change happens. The pathways developed should show the relationship between the activities, and intermediate and long-term changes. To develop pathways, you need to work backwards from your desired future to what needs to be done to change your current reality. It means envisaging how the change process will develop over time.

Step 6. Review and adapt the Theory of Change

Each step in the process so far has most likely resulted in changes in the overall picture. It is typical for a ToC that is being mapped to be revised several times before it provides a complete and clear picture of your change effort. Test whether the most relevant changes and strategies are included, that there are linkages between the strategies, short-term and longer-term changes are logical, and important assumptions are clear. Explore whether your key stakeholders share your vision and main assumptions about the change process, the logic of linkages between strategies and results/outcomes, and the choice of strategies. Based on the discussions, you might need to revise your ToC.

For the ToC to be truly effective, it has to be firmly anchored into the strategic guidance process. Engaging stakeholders in this process is crucial for enhancing impact.